What is Ad Seasonality and Why Do Ad Rates Drop in Q1?

Опубликовано: 25 Февраль 2025
на канале: Ezoic

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In this video, Whitney goes over what ad seasonality is, why ad rates are so high in Q4 and drop so low in Q1, and how to best combat these changes.

First, what is ad seasonality? Ad seasonality is the fluctuation of ad rates throughout the year. This means that while some parts of the year, like Q4, have a big spike in ad rates, other times of the year, ad rates are lower, and this is normal. It’s also popular for certain niches or keywords to fluctuate at different times of the year. For example, the camping niche is probably more popular in the summer than it is in the winter.

The ad rates record is typically broken every Black Friday, and this year, 2021, was no different. Most publishers are probably riding a high that will last through the rest of Q4. However, every year, the start of the new year brings lower ad rates and many become concerned. Why is this and what can we do about it?

Black Friday brings the highest ad rates because advertisers are trying to get products out there during the spending spree. It’s also because advertisers have a particular budget that they need to max out before the end of the quarter; otherwise, they risk losing that budget next quarter or year.

Then, the first quarter rolls in, and ad rates plummet. Every year, we see publishers’ concern and frantic attempts to recover their rates, but this is not the time to panic. This dip is completely normal.

If you can understand these dips and spikes in ad rates and niches and keywords, you can optimize your website and content to ride those waves to your advantage.

So, why exactly do ad rates fall in Q1? There is one major player in the advertising ecosystem that causes this dip, and that’s the advertiser.

Advertisers are given budgets on a per month or per year basis, so it is common to see falls in ad rates at the end of each month and then also at the end of each year. Advertisers work with ad agencies and often pay them on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. This would explain why the money runs out at the end of the month, end of the quarter, or end of the year. It’s also natural that by January, all the holiday spending is over, so advertising slows down as well.

If you’re prepared for this dip in advertising rates, then it is much less daunting. There are two reasons we aren’t worried about this.

Number one, because even if publishers think their earnings are significantly dropping, they likely are just returning to a more normal rate.

Number two, this happens every year, is normal, and a bounceback can be expected.

While ad rates may seem to have dropped, year over year, ad rates continue to increase. Since publishers are earning more, the earnings drop they see is bigger in magnitude. It is typically, however, the same percentage of drop every year. Just wait a few months--in February and March, ad rates pick up again, because the end of the quarter is coming around.

While we aren’t worried about these changes, we do have some advice for best practices around this time.

The number one thing we tell publishers is do not make any significant changes on your site on or near January 1. If you make changes to your site while there is already a revenue drop happening, you won’t know how those changes are actually affecting your site; is it ad seasonality or the changes you made to your website?

Second, take advantage of the best content and keywords before Q1 arrives. By taking a deep dive into Big Data Analytics, you can see things like the progress of your evergreen content or relevant content for the start of the new year that maybe could use a tune up. Consider how you can use your current content to your advantage at the start of the new year and how you can create new, relevant content for Q1.