Kursk operation proves that Russia's nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent
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The Ukrainian military's offensive in the Kursk region is not just a brazen attempt to stop a Russian invasion. It is the first time a nuclear power has faced an invasion and occupation by another country, The Wall Street Journal writes.
"For decades, nuclear escalation theory has assumed that countries with nuclear weapons have significant immunity from attack, since an aggressor risks provoking Armageddon. Relatively small states such as Israel, Iran, North Korea and Libya have sought nuclear weapons in part to deter attacks from larger, better-armed adversaries," the publication notes.
The article emphasized that Ukraine is not a nuclear power, but it managed to seize territory in more than three weeks, which now amounts to almost 1,300 square kilometers.
"It's a stunning turnaround. Strategists for years often assumed that North Atlantic Treaty Organization members would seize Russian territory in battle, rather than beleaguered outsiders. Now Western leaders, military thinkers and nuclear theorists are grappling with what the current developments mean for the prospects for Russian escalation and for future war games," the publication noted.
In connection with such events, the world is forced to reconsider the role that nuclear weapons can play in deterrence, the publication's analysts believe.
In particular, the Russian nuclear doctrine states that the country will use nuclear weapons in the event of a threat to the sovereignty or territorial integrity of the country.
"Although Ukraine occupies part of Russian territory, neither side considers the Kursk region strategically important, so Ukraine's attack - however inconvenient for the Kremlin - shows no sign of crossing a Russian red line," the authors of the article believe.
However, ambiguity and uncertainty "are an integral part of the nuclear game," the WSJ emphasizes.
"Nobody really knows the Russian 'red line' - they never named it exactly. We may find out later that we crossed the red line two months ago," explained former Soviet and Russian arms control negotiator Nikolai Sokov.
He draws attention in particular to the fact that the Kremlin and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin probably view threats to his regime as sovereign threats to the Russian Federation.
"From this perspective, significant gains by Ukraine or losses by Russia could lead to nuclear escalation - although it would most likely begin with the broader use of non-nuclear weapons rather than a surprise attack," Sokov said.
The publication emphasized that Ukraine, by invading the Kursk region, wants to show that another taboo can be broken without dire consequences. Also, part of the goal is to allow the use of more lethal and accurate American weapons on Russian territory.
"The playout of events triggered by Ukraine's advance into Kursk has its roots in the Cold War, when escalation theory was a widely studied discipline. When the Soviet Union developed the atomic bomb in 1949, four years after the United States had created it, Western strategists tried to predict how this terrifying weapon might be used in combat," the article recalled.
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