US Grand Strategy: NATO, Alliances, & Ukraine - how alliances underpin American influence
From the time NATO was founded in 1949 to the recent accession of Finland, the United States has remained the foremost military power in NATO.
But a question that is not often asked is why? Why would a power like the USA continue to expand promises of defence to an ever larger group of nations that cannot hope to offer a similar level of capability or assistance in return.
The acceptance of new allies into NATO or bilateral and multilateral security treaties has not always been without domestic and international opposition.
And so today I wanted to follow up on my video on Russian grand strategy, with its baked in goal of undermining American influence and global leadership, with an examination of America's published security strategy, the role alliances and coalitions play in it, and some of the theory behind why the argument can be made that the basis of American global influence and its privileged security position owe as much to its alliances and coalitions as to other
aspects of its power.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats and Comments:
Two odd typos that appear to have made it through editing: The reference to "eactionary disruptors" should be "reactionary disruptors"
And in a currency chart - the data appears to have used "RMB" rather than "CNY" for Renminbi for some reason. That is an error.
As always - all the usual caveats around platform, manpower and budget figures apply. All figures in this presentation should be treated as indicative given the challenges of getting precise like-like comparisons
As many of you would know there are different ways of expressing security dilemmas and explaining the logic behind asymmetric alliance structures. Because this is one video - focused on a single power I've chosen a particular method of explaining the theoretical basis for those decisions.
And - once again - this video is an effort to explain the what and why of how alliance structures are critical to US security strategy (as published). It is not intended either as an endorsement or as a critique.
Sources & Reading:
NATO annual tracking research -2022
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl20...
US National Security Strategy 2022
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content...
NATO agrees higher 2023 budgets
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
Japan and chipmaking equipment export restrictions
https://www.reuters.com/technology/ja...
https://www.reuters.com/technology/ja...
Dutch and chipmaking equipment export restrictions
https://www.asiafinancial.com/dutch-s...
Composition of FOREX reserves
https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14...
Forex turnover volumes
https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22...
ROK 2018 Defence White Paper
https://www.mnd.go.kr/user/mnd/upload...
OPEC+ Production cuts
https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...
RCB assets locations
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...
Example of previous announcement on own-currency trade agreements
https://en.mercopress.com/2013/03/28/...
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/helloch...
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-219...
OPEC 1975
https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/10/ar...
US army force structure (and associated costs)
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...
NATO Joint ISR
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/to...
F35 Production - 2008
https://www.slideshare.net/andycoster...
Example coverage of opinions on US forces in Japan
https://www.overtdefense.com/2023/03/...
Ukraine aid support tracking:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-ag...
Most platform and manpower figures as per MB-2021, budgets as per NATO reporting
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — US Grand Strategy
00:01:51 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:15 — Collective Security
00:09:11 — The Great Power View
00:15:38 — Great Power Strategy & Goals
00:26:39 — Alliances, Quantified
00:33:13 — Scenarios & Capabilities
00:40:13 — Collective Benefits
00:44:02 — Great Power Economics
00:58:42 — Ukraine - The System in Action
01:02:11 — Alternatives & Threats?
01:06:53 — Conclusions
01:08:02 — Channel Update
